Wednesday, September 5, 2012
Paul Balinski Passes Away
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The 10 States with the Strongest Housing Markets
Montana shares characteristics with several of the Plains States. It never suffered from high unemployment during the recession; as a matter for fact, the jobless rate has been extraordinarily low. The agriculture and oil industries did well, and commodity prices were high. The cost of living in these states was, and still is, relatively low compared to the national average, and so are home prices.
Hawaii has the highest median home price of any state by a wide margin. That is even after home prices fell 20.4% between the 2007 housing market peak through the first quarter of this year. Forecasts, however, show that the recent improvement should moderate.
South Carolina suffered relatively high unemployment during the recession, and it remains above the national average of 8.3%. The real estate market also suffered during that time South Carolina is one of several states 24/7 Wall St. found will only have a momentary housing price recovery.
One of states most brutally damaged by the wreck of the housing market bubble, Florida’s home prices dropped 48.4% from the first quarter of 2007 to the first quarter of this year. Only Arizona, Nevada and California are even in that league. The problem arose from a combination of overbuilding and high unemployment, which was created to some extend by the drop in home construction jobs. The recovery of the state housing market is uneven at best. RealtyTrac reports that Florida’s foreclosure rate in July of one in every 352 housing units ranked third among all states. Florida’s recovery in terms of home prices is expected to be poor short term, but substantially improved longer term. The improvement in price from the first quarter of 2013 to the first quarter of 2014 is expected to be a tepid 1.8%, putting it 45th among all states. However, from the first quarter of this year until the first quarter of 2017, the improvement on an annualized basis is forecast at 4.2%, which is 11th highest among all states.
North Dakota is another of the Plains States that never had substantial home price declines or severe unemployment as the national economy cratered between 2007 and 2010. Home prices during that period actually rose 17%, the highest in the nation. North Dakota has consistently ranked in the bottom three states in terms of unemployment rate. North Dakota home prices, at a median of below $90,000 are quite low — 45th among all states
The Colorado housing market was not badly damaged when the housing bubble broke. Home prices dropped 9.5% from the first quarter of 2007 to the first quarter of 2012, which was the 18th best among all states. The market’s recovery rate will put it in the middle among the 50 states.
South Dakota, another Plains State, has the same advantage of being home to industries that employ a great many of its residents as its neighbors do. Home prices are 44th among all states. Those prices barely budged when the housing market throughout most of the nation disintegrated. The median price of a home actually rose 3% between the first quarter of 2007 and the first quarter of this year. On that basis, South Dakota ranked second among all states. The improvement in the market is only expected to be mediocre moving forward, and certainly nowhere near the 8.3% home price increase of last year.
The damage to the Utah housing market during 2007 to 2011 was worse than most states — home prices fell 21.6% over that period. That rate Utah 34th among all states based on that measurement. The recovery of the market is predicted to be particularly strong for the next several years, nearly as strong as the 9.3% jump in median home price from July 2011 to July 2012. Corelogic expects home prices to rise 5.8% from the first quarter of 2013 to the first quarter of 2014, which ranks it 10th among all states on that metric.
Idaho is one of only seven states with a median home price below $100,000. Unlike Montana, North Dakota and South Dakota to the east of it, Idaho did suffer from an unemployment problem. At 7.5%, the jobless rate is not terribly better than the national average. This may have contributed to the drop in Idaho home prices, which fell 29.6% from the first quarter of 2007 to the first quarter of this year. The home price recovery is expected to be stronger than almost any other state, a continuation of the 10% improvement over the past year.
The Arizona real estate market was damaged as badly as any other when the home market collapsed, perhaps with the exception of Nevada. And the pain is not near the end yet, despite ranking first in home price improvement from July 2011 to July 2012. Arizona home prices fell 49.9% from the first quarter 2007 to the first quarter 2012. The state continues to have the second-highest foreclosure rate in the country, according to RealtyTrac, with one in every 346 housing units with a foreclosure filing in July. That troubling trend may be why the Arizona’s housing market recovery is expected to be extremely weak, over the shorter and longer term. Home prices are expected to rise only 1.4% from the first quarter of 2013 to the first quarter of 2014, which puts Arizona 48th among all states. Over the period from the first quarter of this year to the first quarter of 2017, the improvement is expected to be 2.5% per annum — 39th among all states.
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