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Economic Events This Week

    ELA San Diego Conference

    by Paul Menzel, CLP

        Two Panels--San Jose, Ca

            Housing Starts Exceed Expectations

        NAELB Incentives to Recruit New Members

    Sports Briefs---

This Day in American History



This Border ##### Denotes Press Release (Not Written By Leasing News)



Economic Events This Week


October 20


Leading Indicators: September


October 21




October 22


Two Panels—San Jose


October 23


Weekly Jobless Claims


October 24











Bylines: Lingering Fog plagues Big Ticket leasing.

Patchy Sun teases the Middle Market segment of the Industry.

Small Ticket & Vendor lessors warm up to clear & sunny skies.





SAN DIEGO, CA - The City that is known for perpetual sunshine reminded leasing professionals from around the Country that change is a constant. Every attendee was looking for signs of positive economic growth to break the chill that they have been enduring for the last two years. Overcast skies opened the convention on Saturday, but warm sunshine emerged by the end of the meeting on Wednesday. The fluctuating weather of San Diego served as a fitting backdrop for the release of the “2003 State of the Industry Report” by the Equipment Leasing and Finance Foundation. Tom Peters and Michael Treacy shared their secrets for achieving growth regardless of the economic conditions. Ben Stein, actor and economist, provided balance with a flood of jokes and life chronicles.


The estimated 1150 individuals in attendance were as diverse as the industry’s prospects. Approximately 430 different companies represented all segments of the market. Attendance by individuals was down by only 5% from last year but higher than two years ago. The number of companies represented was equal to last year and up 15% over 2001. ELA membership, down approximately 10% from the prior year, is stronger than forecasted by the Association’s leadership. The largest segment and greatest growth in membership is in the smaller size companies and lowest dues paying category.


The foggiest prospects continue to be reported by the Large Ticket leasing segment. Thomas M. Jaschik, LaSalle National Leasing Corporation, reported to the ELA Board of Directors that change is in the air. The equity markets are static to declining; low bank debt rates provide a formidable alternative for lessees; attacks on off-balance sheet treatment and synthetic structures are a continuing threat; Basil II Accord confounds the future for many; consolidation and contraction continue. Michael Fleming, ELA President, reminded everyone that the hallmark and strength of the industry is adapting to change with creativity and innovation.


David Merrill, Fifth Third Leasing Company, reported cautious optimism for Middle Market leasing. The legislative tax changes affecting leverage leases also serve as a threat to this segment. The average size of the mid-ticket lease has dropped. The trucking industry is again active; construction shows pent-up demand, manufacturing is only replacing equipment; technology is indicating recovery from the Y2K hangover. Portfolios are not being sold in order to preserve income and profitability through static growth. Worries about a “false start’ in the economy abound.


Service Providers, represented by John McCue of McCue Systems Inc., reported 261 attendees. Exhibitors found a warm and friendly reception with shopping activity picking up. Consolidation in the information and technology group continues. Outsourcing of attendant processes and systems is a growing trend among businesses in general and financial institutions in particular.


Small Ticket Vendors, as reported by Paul Frechette of Key Equipment Finance, is seeing increased collaboration between lessors and equipment vendors. New production is characterized as “hopeful”. Yours truly, as Chairman of the Small Ticket
Business Council, reported lower portfolio delinquency and charge-off; improving credit quality of new applications; softening of the consumer credit alternative of low mortgage rates; strong tax incentives for small business to make capital equipment investment (Section 179 Deduction and Bonus Depreciation); improving economy in the manufacturing and service sectors. Convenience continues o be the business driver for small ticket equipment finance and insulates this segment from many of the accounting worries haunting other lessors. Price inelasticity in a low rate environment is rewarding participants with healthy margins.


Throughout the conference, the general mood was upbeat and reflected the conference theme of “TRUST IN EXCELLENCE’. Edward Dahlka, Chairman of the ELA and LaSalle National Leasing Corp., opened the gathering with a report that ELA is “financially strong”. He also reported that “the survivors have used the economic pause to become faster, leaner, and more focused in operations.” Ed went on to tell attendees that “change creates opportunity and our industry has always thrived in such times.” The Association will spend almost $2 Million on “advocacy” as it represents our industry in shaping positive change in the face of increased regulation and homogenization … serious threat to all of our business models. Donations to the ELA LeasePAC are critical to our success in government relations at the Federal and State levels. In the end, Chairman Dahlka reminded us that “Community is created through vulnerability.”

Tom Peters, of “In Search of Excellence” fame, waxed sage by opening the general session with his talk entitled “Business Excellence for a Disruptive Age”. His message was the “replace apathy and whining with commitment”. He shared some quotes of others that he espouses below. Presentation slides available at


“Uncertainty is the only thing to be sure of.” Anthony Muck, Citigroup Asset Mgmt


“If you don’t like change, you’re going to like irrelevance even less.”

General Eric Shuseki, Chief of Staff, US Army


“Innovation not Optimization. We have shifted from a Service Economy to an ‘Experience’ Economy” Tom Peters


“75% of all administrative functions, H.R., and backroom processes will be outsourced and digitized in the next three years.” Jeffrey Imelt, GE


“Don’t own nothing if you can help it.

If you can you should rent your shoes.”

Forrest Gump


‘The sun is breaking through” Paul Menzel reporting.



Paul J. Menzel, CLP

Senior Vice President

Community Bank Lending Group


P.O. Box 60607

Santa Barbara, CA 93160-0607

1 South Los Carneros Road

Santa Barbara, CA 93117

Dir Ph# (805)560-1650


Mailcode: #67








******* announcement******************************

United Association of Equipment Leasing Regional Meeting

San Jose, California—October 22---“Two Panels”



3:30pm to 7:30pm at Napredak Hall, 770 Montague Expressway, San Jose

( 1 1/2 blocks off Highway 880.)


Two Separate Sessions


Venture Leasing

4:30pm to 5:30pm

Peter Eaton, Pentech Financial

John Pritchard, Vencore Solutions

Russ Wilder, Atel Leasing


6:00pm to 7:00pm


"Decision Not Based on Credit Scoring"

(also known as "Story Credits" or "Cash Flow Analysis."

Peter Eaton ( does story credits $250,000 minimum)

Doug Houlihan, Allegiant-Partners ($30,000 +)

Archie Julian, Dumac Leasing (Exchange Bank)


Open to All


Host: Kit Menkin, American Leasing $15.00 800-727-3844

to register:







Housing Starts Exceed Expectations


September starts increased 3.4% to 1.888 million (SAAR), exceeding expectations. Permit activity fell 2.2%, although permit levels at 1.86 million SAAR, suggest near term activity will remain brisk. The more volatile multi family (MF) sector increased 4.5%. Regionally, starts were up in all areas except the South which fell a modest 1.3%.


Analysis and outlook: Housing starts continue at healthy levels with mortgage rates remaining attractive with the 30 year conventional rate just under 6%. There are increasing signs that the economy is picking up steam – employment picture seems to be stabilizing; business investment spending is improving modestly; industrial production is improving modestly although manufacturing capacity utilization remains below 75%; while the consumer continues to spend. Annualized core inflation (excluding food & energy) over the past 3 months at the wholesale level ( PPI) is only 1.34% and 1.5% at the consumer (CPI) level. Eventually, inflation will begin to trend upward (albeit modestly according to most analysts) as the economy continues to improve. NAHB’s latest forecast has the economy improving next year, therefore they expect a modest increase in the fixed rate, 30 year mortgage to 6.2% (versus 5.8% in 2003). This increase will pull housing back about 90,000 units to 1.68 million, SAAR with single family falling back to 1.36 million. Historically, these are still good levels.


The real story the past several months has been the rise in lumber and panel prices with the framing lumber composite up 25% or more while the structural panel composite price doubled during the 3rd quarter. Other than frustrating some customers (e.g., retail buyers and home builders), and adding several thousand dollars to the cost of building a new home, the higher prices have not significantly reduced the appetite of home buyers. For a good explanation (and rational one I feel), see the October 10 issue of Random Lengths – “Fundamentals at work in the panel market”. Of course, if prices stay where they are now, home builders will use more substitutes according to recent studies by NAHB. At any rate, that is how the markets are suppose to work – prices respond to shifts.


by region chart:


compliments of:

Carl Villella, CLP

Acceptance Leasing and Financing Service, Inc.

1004 Sanlin Dr.

Moon Township, Pa. 15108

412-262-3225 Phone

800-586-0048 Fax





NAELB Incentives to Recruit New Members


Notice To All Members:



With over 500 members, the National Association of Equipment Leasing Brokers is the second largest professional trade association for the leasing industry. Increased membership benefits us all by attracting more funder and associate members, and increasing the number of participants at our conferences and regional meetings. It makes it possible to offer more benefits programs, and generally helps make participation in the association more affordable.


The NAELB Membership Committee invites all members to join our campaign to recruit additional new members. This will help us to contact a greater possible number of new member candidates, and also enables us to contact prospective members we might not otherwise have identified.




a.. NAELB members are encouraged to help recruit leasing industry participants (brokers, funders, or associates) who are not currently active with our association.


c.. By joining now and paying the annual dues amount in advance, new members can receive full membership for the remainder of 2003 for free! Their new membership will be activated immediately and they will receive the association's full range of benefits until December 31, 2004. Annual NAELB membership dues are as follows:

a.. Broker Member $295

b.. Funder Member $750

c.. Associate Member $600


d.. For each new member they successfully recruit, current members can receive a credit of $50 to be applied towards their future annual dues. Referral incentives are cumulative. (For example: Six new members recruited would result in 'free' membership for all of 2004. Twelve new recruits would eliminate annual dues for both 2004 and 2005, etc.)


a.. This incentive program applies to all new membership applications received up to and including November 15, 2003. No credit will be awarded for applications received after November 15, 2003.


b.. Referral incentive credits will only be awarded when a new membership application is accepted, the appropriate annual dues amount is paid in full, and the submitted application form clearly names the sponsoring party on the Referral line. Only one current member will receive credit for recruiting a new member, and only the current member whose name is printed on the new membership application will receive the credit. Referral party names cannot be added to an application after it has been received by NAELB administration. Current members should ensure that their name is included on the membership application before forwarding it to each candidate they are recruiting. For more information on this program, please contact the NAELB


by phone at 1-800-996-2352 or by email to:




a.. Referral incentive credits will no longer be awarded for half-year memberships.








Sports Briefs---


Pettitte Stops Marlins Cold in Their Tracks


Bronco's Two QB Out for Four More Weeks


Backups get Rams back up


No ifs, ands or Bucs/49ers manhandle defending champs



This Day in American History


    1803-The Senate ratified the Louisiana Purchase Treaty by a vote of twenty-four to seven. Originally

concerned that France would develop this territory, by the time the American delegation reached France,

Napoleon was more concerned about England and to both stop England from gaining this territory,

and to raise money, had offered $15 million for the property. The delegation accepted it without

any authority as too good of an opportunity to turn down. The ratification was more a legal


    1818-A diplomatic convention signed between Britain and the U.S. gave fishing rights to American seamen off parts of Newfoundland and the coast of Labrador. The U.S. renounced such activity within three miles of any other British Territory. The boundary between Canada and the U.S. between Lake of the Woods and the crest of the Rocky Mts. was fixed at the 49th parallel. No boundary was decided upon farther west, and Oregon was declared open territory for ten years.

    1827- Emily Howland, received an honorary doctorate by the University of the State of New York at age 99 for her services to educating black students which included helping establish or aiding more than 30 institutions of learning in the youth, and schools in New York and Virginia.

    1854-Until 1929, more than 150.000 homeless children and poor families were transported out of New York City, Boston and Chi­cago aboard trains accompanied by “agents.” Agents for the New York Children’s Aid Society arranged for Midwestern families to take the children under a contract agreement. Infants placed by the New York Foundling.

    1858-Birthday of James Robert Dewey, American lawyer and legislator, born near Bloomington, IL, Republican member of Congress from Illinois from 1896 until his death, Nov 30, 1922, at Washington, DC. Mann was the author and sponsor of the "White Slave Traffic Act," also known as the "Mann Act," passed by Congress on June 25, 1910. The act prohibited, under heavy penalties, the interstate transportation of women for immoral purposes.

1859-Birthday of John Dewey, American psychologist, philosopher and educational reformer born at Burlington, VT. His philosophical views of education have been termed pragmatism, instrumentalism and experimentalism. Died at New York, NY, June 1, 1952

    1873 - Showman P.T. Barnum opened the Hippodrome in New York City to accommodate his "Greatest Show on Earth".

    1898-John Merrick organizes North Carolina Mutual Life Insurance Company.

The nations oldest and largest black insurance company.

    1901-Birthday of singer Adelaide Hall, Brooklyn, NY.

    1910 - A cork centered baseball was used in a World Series game for the first time. The Philadelphia Athletics, managed by Connie Mack, and the Chicago Cubs, managed by P.K. Wrigley, were in competition for the championship.

    1913-Trumpter Johnny Best born Shelby, NC. With Glenn Miller 1939-42.

    1920-Trumpter Ray Linn born Chicago, Ill. With Herman, Shaw, Raeburn.

    1931-Mickey Mantle birthday, Baseball Hall of Famer, born at Spavinaw, OK. Mantle replaced Joe DiMaggio in center field for the New York Yankees and grew to become the most beloved player of his era. His battle with liver cancer raised awareness for organ donation and alcoholism. Inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1974.

Died Aug 13, 1995, at Dallas, TX.

    1934-Birthday of tenor sax player Eddie Harris, Chicago, Il.

Died November 8, 1966.

    1944---Top Hits

I’ll Walk Alone - Dinah Shore

Is You is or is You Ain’t - Bing Crosby & The Andrews Sisters

It Had to Be You - Helen Forrest & Dick Haymes

Smoke on the Water - Red Foley

    1944- more than 100,000 American soldiers land on Leyte Island, in the Philippines, as preparation for the major invasion by Gen. Douglas MacArthur. The ensuing battles of Leyte Island proved among the bloodiest of the war in the Pacific and signaled the beginning of the end for the Japanese.

The Japanese had held the Philippines since May 1942, when the awful defeat of American forces led to General MacArthur's departure and General Wainwright's capture. MacArthur was back, as he promised, but his invasion of Luzon required a softening up of the enemy. Thus, the amphibious landing of the American forces at Leyte and the concomitant goal of destroying the Japanese fleet in the gulf was undertaken. All told, the Japanese lost more than 55,000 soldiers during the two months of battle and approximately another 25,000 in mopping up operations in early 1945. The U.S. forces lost about 3,500-compared with the Japanese loss of 80,000 total. The sea battle of Leyte Gulf was the same story. The loss of ships and sailors was horrendous for both sides. The sinking of the American carrier Princeton resulted in the drowning deaths of 500 men. When the Japanese battleship Musashi was destroyed by a massive American aerial attack, more than 1,000 sailors died, including the captain who stood on his bridge and literally went down with his ship. Three days of sea battle saw the destruction of 36 Japanese warships-compared with America's three. It also saw the introduction of the Japanese kamikaze-"divine wind"--suicide bombers. The St. Lo, an American aircraft carrier, was one of the first casualties, when one kamikaze pilot drove his plane straight into its flight deck. More than 5,000 kamikaze pilots died in this gulf battle-taking down 34 ships. But when all was said and done, the Japanese had not been able to prevent the loss of their biggest and best warships, signaling the virtual end of the Japanese Imperial Fleet. The American victory on land and sea opened the door for General MacArthur's invasion and the recapture of the Philippines. The television series “Victory at Seas” captures much of this major battle.

    1952---Top Hits

You Belong to Me - Jo Stafford

Wish You Were Here - Eddie Fisher

I Went to Your Wedding - Patti Page

Jambalaya (On the Bayou) - Hank Williams

    1953 - Science fiction writer Ray Bradbury's chilling futuristic anti-book novel, Fahrenheit 451, was published on this date.

    1955 - On Broadway, "No Time for Sergeants" opened, starring Andy Griffith.

    1955 - One of Harry Belafonte's hits was recorded for RCA Victor. It took "Day-O" over a year to hit the pop charts in January of 1957, after its name was changed to "The Banana Boat Song (Day-O)".

    1957 - Tonight Walter Cronkite began hosting a weekly documentary. Called "The 20th Century", the show reported on major events that shaped modern history. In 1967, the show switched its focus and its title to "The 21st Century". Until its last show on January 4, 1970. Cronkite was the only narrator of the program.

    1960---Top Hits

Save the Last Dance for Me - The Drifters

My Heart Has a Mind of Its Own - Connie Francis

I Want to Be Wanted - Brenda Lee

Alabam - Cowboy Copas

    1961- the Supreme Court upholds a Florida law which exempts women from jury duty, unless they volunteer. In all, 18 states allow the jury duty exemption while three state, Alabama, Mississippi, and South Carolina outright barred women from jury duty. However, on 02-07-1966, a federal court rules that such laws should end on June 1, 1967 because such laws "deny to women the equal protection of the laws in violation of the 14th amendment." In January of 1975 the Supreme Court says a Louisiana law forbidding women serving on juries is unconstitutional.

The first woman juror served in the State of New York in 1936

    1968---Top Hits

Hey Jude - The Beatles

Fire - The Crazy World of Arthur Brown

Little Green Apples - O.C. Smith

Then You Can Tell Me Goodbye - Eddy Arnold

    1973-The White House announced at 8:24pm EDT, that President ‘Richard M. Nixon had discharged

Archibald Cox (Special Watergate Prosecutor) and William B. Ruckelhaus ( Deputy Attorney

General)(, and that the Attorney General Elliot L. Richardson, had resigned. Immediate and widespread demands for impeachment of the president ensued and were not settled until President Nixon resigned August 9, 1974.

    1976---Top Hits

Disco Duck (Part 1) - Rick Dees & His Cast of Idiots

Lowdown - Boz Scaggs

If You Leave Me Now -Chicago

You and Me - Tammy Wynette

    1979 - The John F. Kennedy Library in Boston was dedicated.

    1983-“ The Six Million Dollar Man” premiered on TV. This action-adventure series based on the novel “Cyborg” was a monthly feature on “The ABC Suspense Movie” before becoming a regular series in 1974. Lee Majors starred as astronaut Steve Austin, who after an accident, was “rebuilt” with bionic legs, arms and an eye. He worked for the Office of Strategic Information (S) carrying out sensitive missions. Also in the cast were Richard Anderson, Alan Oppenheimer and Martin E. Brooks. “The Bionic Woman, “ staring g Lindsay Wagner, was a spin-off from his show and the two main characters were paired for several made-for-TV sequels.

    1984---Top Hits

I Just Called to Say I Love You - Stevie Wonder

Caribbean Queen (No More Love on the Run) - Billy Ocean

Hard Habit to Break - Chicago

I Don’t Know a Thing About Love (The Moon Song) - Conway Twitty

    1988-Top Hits

Groovy Kind Of Love- Phil Collins

Kokomo (From The "Cocktail" Soundtrack)- The Beach Boys

Wild, Wild West- The Escape Club

Red Red Wine- UB40

    1991- Oakland Hills fire, California

    1993-Top Hits

Dreamlover- Mariah Carey

Just Kickin It- Xscape

I d Do Anything For Love (But I Won t Do That)- Meat Loaf

All That She Wants- Ace Of Base

    1995 - The clever black comedy, Get Shorty, starring John Travolta, Rene Russo, Gene Hackman, Danny DeVito, and Dennis Farina, opened across the country. The film did well at the box office, and once again affirmed Travolta's "come back" to films.

2000 -Toronto signs Carlos Delgado to a record four-year $68 million contract. The Blue Jay first baseman's average salary of $17 million is the most in major league history.

    2001—Top Hits

Look of Love---Diana Krall

Silver Side Up-Nickeback

Pain is Love-Ja Rule

Songs in a Minor-Alicia Keys

    2002- Twenty-year old Venezuelan right-hander Francisco Rodriguez becomes the youngest pitcher ever to win a World Series game. With just 15 days of major league experience, K- Rod throws 37 pitches retiring 9 consecutive batters in three innings to pick up the victory as the Angels out slug the Giants in Game 2, 11-10.



World Series Champion This Date



1982--- St. Louis Cardinals

1988—Los Angeles Dodgers

1990-Cincinnati Reds




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