Headlines---

 

Pictures from the Past---1978 David Walish

              "The course of this Nation does not depend on the decisions of others"

                   President George W. Bush

                Dollar Retreats Against Major Currencies

                  West Coast states bear the brunt of high unemployment rates

                     Venture Capital Investing at the Bottom, Going Up!!!

                       CIT ---Ying/Yang  Del/Calbreath

                         Superbowl Economic effect expected  well below '98 event

                            "Only in Ninersland"--Skip Bayless, San Jose Mercury

 

                  Special Report:  War Threat Eroding Consumer Confidence

                                        Rebecca Gomez

 

  ### Denotes Press Release

 

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Pictures from the Past---1978 David Walish

 

 

 

 

Dave Walish, President of Lease Marketing, Inc

Fresno, California

 

___________________________________________________________

 

 

"The Course of this Nation does not depend on the decisions of others."

              President George W. Bush

 

Lessors, discounter, brokers tell Leasing News that it almost feels

like “9/11” again.   Businesses are scared to make a decision, and

want to wait.

 

“It is almost like they are trying to talk themselves into giving up,”

one leasing company executive told me. “ We have more salesmen

than last year, but the volume is down as it appears decisions are

being put off.”

 

“The phone is not ringing, “ another told us, “and don’t use our

name, please!”

 

No one appears to want to go on the record.  The “Sky is Falling” fable of

Chicken Little was brought up a number of times.

 

Small to mid-size business has brought the economy out of the doldrums in

the past, but it appears they are out of cash. And almost like the Oakland

Raiders, they have not come to the stadium to play.                                      

 

“The Count Down to War Begins,” Tim Russert, NBC News

 

http://www.whitehouse.gov/stateoftheunion/

 

full text of President Bush’s State of Union address

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/onpolitics/transcripts/bushtext_012803.html

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                Dollar Retreats Against Major Currencies

 

                             By Mariko Hayashibara

 

TOKYO (Reuters) - The dollar retreated against other major currencies on Wednesday after President Bush said in his State of the Union speech that "crucial hours may lie ahead" for U.S. forces in the Gulf.

 

Bush made it clear that the United States is prepared to act to disarm Iraq with or without U.N. backing.

 

"If the United States goes to war alone, then it will lead to further dollar selling," said Motoshi Imura, a senior manager of foreign exchange at Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi.

 

As European trade set in, the dollar softened to trade at 117.88/91 yen at 1:51 a.m. EST after stop-loss sales were triggered at 117.95 yen.

 

The euro was at $1.0869/74 against $1.0825 in late Tuesday U.S. trade but off an earlier high of $1.0880. Against the yen, the single European currency was at 128.19/30 yen against 128.44 yen in late U.S. trade.

 

Sterling rose to $1.6472/77 compared with $1.6410.

 

Players are now looking ahead to Bush's meeting with British Prime Minister Tony Blair on Friday at Camp David to see if any time frame for an attack will be discussed.

 

"The market is dominated by the risk of war," said Junya Tanase, global markets officer at JP Morgan Chase.

 

Tanase said if new developments are seen on the Iraqi front, the euro may move above a psychological barrier of $1.1.

 

In an attempt to convince doubting allies, Bush called on the U.N. Security Council to convene on February 5 to hear Secretary of State Colin Powell present information and intelligence about Iraq's suspected programs on weapons of mass destruction.

 

SNOW IN DOUBT

 

Dealers said the dollar's renewed softness was also due to market skepticism about the United States' "strong dollar" policy, despite an affirmation of the policy by Treasury Secretary nominee John Snow overnight.

 

In U.S. trade, the greenback had been mildly supported by Snow's restatement of the policy.

 

"I favor a strong dollar," Snow said in prepared remarks for his confirmation hearing before the Senate Finance Committee. "A strong dollar is in the national interest."

 

Many traders had thought Snow would have no choice but to back the long-standing policy given the United States' need for foreign capital to finance its current account deficit, but some had been worried that he might give in to growing protests from U.S. manufacturers that the dollar is too high.

 

While retaining strength against the dollar, the Japanese currency was sold against its European counterparts.

 

Dealers noted growing demand for the euro, the pound and the Australian dollar from Japanese retail investors who are fed up with the extremely low interest rates in Japan.

 

The yield on the key 10-year Japanese government bond fell to a historical low of 0.770 percent on Wednesday.

 

"There has been constant buying of the euro, the pound and the Aussie dollar by Japanese individuals recently," said Kota Kimura, an assistant manager at Shinkin Central Bank.

 

"Interest rates are falling worldwide, but outside rates are still much higher than Japanese rates," he said.

 

Looking ahead, traders were also paying attention to the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting that will conclude on Wednesday.

 

 

            West Coast states bear the brunt of high unemployment rates

 

By Leigh Strope

ASSOCIATED PRESS

 

WASHINGTON – West Coast states are being battered by the ailing economy, leading the country again in high unemployment rates last month, while the Dakotas and Nebraska posted the lowest jobless rates.

 

The new data, released Tuesday by the Labor Department, shows that the jobs outlook in much of the country remains bleak. But no states reported wild swings in their unemployment rates, suggesting some stabilization – at least for now.

 

Finding a job is taking longer for people out of work. Last year, jobless workers spent an average of 16.6 weeks looking for employment, up from 13.2 weeks in 2001.

 

The economy's uneven recovery poses challenges for President Bush, who is pushing for another round of tax cuts to stimulate growth and create jobs. The nation's unemployment rate has hovered around 6 percent since April 2002.

 

The bumpy recovery is similar to the last recession, when Bush's father was president. High unemployment that failed to start dropping until almost two years after the recession ended helped cost the first President Bush a second term.

 

Though jobless rates aren't reaching the levels of the last recession, voters who can't find jobs could spell trouble for Bush, particularly in key battleground states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and West Virginia – which had unemployment rates of 5.9 percent, 6 percent and 5.6 percent, respectively, in December.

 

But the West Coast has been particularly hit hard, and Bush, who has viewed political opportunities in that Democrat-backing region, may be forced to shift focus. Many economists predict the nation's jobless rate will continue to rise in coming months, hitting as high as 6.5 percent this summer and ending the year at current levels.

 

"The economy is flat – there is no new job growth," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com

 

Alaska posted the highest state unemployment rate last month at 7.4 percent, rising from 6.8 percent in November. A drop in tourism and low energy prices earlier this year are major factors for that state's job troubles.

 

The technology bust, the 2001 energy crisis and the weak travel and aviation industries have taken a major toll on West Coast states. Oregon's jobless rate was second highest at 7 percent after dropping from 7.1 percent in November. Washington posted an increase in December to 6.8 percent, up from 6.7 percent; California saw a rise to 6.6 percent, up from 6.5 percent.

 

Also among the highest rates were Mississippi at 6.7 percent and the District of Columbia at 6.6 percent.

 

The upper Midwest has consistently posted the lowest unemployment rates in the country. North and South Dakota had jobless rates of 3 percent last month, and Nebraska had 3.4 percent.

 

Those states have benefited from large agriculture subsidies that helped keep their economies afloat, Zandi said. Also, many workers laid off by companies in those states return to farming and are not counted as unemployed. Another factor, particularly in North Dakota, is the small population that has continued to drop, he said.

 

During 2002, employment fell in 28 states and the District of Columbia. The largest declines were in Illinois, Massachusetts, New York and Georgia. The biggest employment gains for the year were in Florida, Nevada, Kentucky and Wisconsin.

 

 

 

On the Net:

 

State unemployment report: www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/

laus.pdf

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         Venture Capital Investing at the Bottom, Going Up!!!

 

 

Venture Capital Investing Flat in Q4 2002; Full Year 2002 Finishes at 1998 Level

 

(at bottom, now will up!!!! )

 

WASHINGTON  -- The steady decline of venture capital abated in the fourth quarter of 2002 with total investments of $4.2 billion, essentially flat from the prior quarter of $4.5 billion, according to the PricewaterhouseCoopers/Venture Economics/National Venture Capital Association MoneyTree Survey.  A total of 692 entrepreneurial companies received funding in the fourth quarter compared to 671 companies in the third quarter.

 

Venture capital investing has continued to decline since the unprecedented run-up that peaked in 2000. For full year 2002, venture investing totaled $21.2 billion, approximately half of 2001's $41.3 billion. Investment levels in 2002 were similar to 1998, the last pre-bubble year, when $21.6 billion went to entrepreneurs.

 

Tracy Lefteroff, global managing partner of the venture capital practice at PricewaterhouseCoopers, said: "We may finally be near the bottom. This level of investing is more realistic and more sustainable. By historical standards, the current run rate is healthy for venture capitalists and entrepreneurs alike. If the public markets and liquidity opportunities improve in 2003, we could see the return to a more stable venture capital market."

 

"The level of investment seen today is appropriate considering current private company valuations and long-term exit opportunities," explained Mark Heesen, president of the National Venture Capital Association. "Venture capitalists are taking calculated risks on new companies, but realize that these new relationships will likely span many years and may require several additional rounds of capital before exit opportunities become available."

 

Industry And Sector Analysis 

 

The Life Sciences sector (Biotechnology and Medical Devices) was the bright spot for the fourth quarter and the full year 2002. Life Sciences increased 15% to $960 million in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter. For the year, Life Sciences totaled $4.7 billion, accounting for 22% of all venture capital investing, up from 13% in 2001, and the highest proportion of total venture capital in seven years. Separately, the Biotechnology industry attracted $2.8 billion in 2002 and the Medical Devices industry accounted for $1.9 billion in 2002.

 

All other major industries experienced declines for the quarter and the year. Software, perennially the leading industry category, maintained its ranking in 2002 with 799 deals attracting $4.3 billion, or 20% of all venture investing. Telecommunications followed with 335 deals accounting for $2.9 billion, or 14% of the annual total. Investments in the Networking industry fell to $2.2 billion in 209 companies, or 11% of the total.

 

First-Time Financings 

 

A total of 169 companies received venture capital for the first time in Q4 2002, about the same as the 166 in the third quarter. For full year 2002, 756 companies got first-time funding, down 35% from the 1,178 companies in 2001. However, these companies commanded a slightly larger share of overall investment dollars in 2002, capturing $4.3 billion or 20% of the total compared to 18% in the prior year.

 

In general, these companies mirrored the overall industry category trends. For full year 2002, 158 companies in the Life Sciences sector (Biotechnology and Medical Devices combined) garnered $943 million, or 22% of all first-time financings, up from 14% the prior year. As a stand-alone industry category, Software accounted for the most deals and dollars in 2002 with 209 companies receiving $880 million, or 21% of all first-time financings, unchanged from 2001. Only 61 Telecommunications companies received venture backing for the first time in 2002, amounting to $355 million. This represents 8% of all first-time investments, compared to 15% in Telecommunications the prior year.

 

Stage of Development 

 

Venture capitalists continued to fund early stage companies at a steady pace. In the fourth quarter, these companies attracted $743 million or 18% of total investing, about the same proportion as in each of the three prior quarters of the year. For full year 2002, early stage companies received $4.1 billion, or 19% of the annual total, down slightly from 22% of the total in 2001.

 

Following historical norms, expansion stage companies attracted the largest percentage of venture capital. In calendar year 2002, they accounted for $13.3 billion, or 63% of the total, a slight increase over 58% of the total in the prior year. The proportion of investing in late stage companies was essentially unchanged: 17% in 2002 versus 18% in 2001.

 

According to Jesse Reyes, vice president at Thomson Venture Economics, "Venture investors continue to move toward life cycle investing -- balancing investments in start-up and early stage companies with expansion and later stage funding -- in order to mitigate risk and find more favorable valuations in companies that are more mature and potentially profitable. In 2002, for every dollar invested in new financings, a little over four dollars was invested in follow-on deals. That can be contrasted to 1999, when one dollar of new financing was accompanied by two and one-half dollars of follow-on. This life cycle approach reflects VC's existing portfolios and the maturity of the market segments they are investing in."

 

About the PricewaterhouseCoopers/Thomson Venture Economics/National Venture Capital Association Money Tree Survey 

 

The MoneyTree(TM) Survey measures cash-for-equity investments by the professional venture capital community in private emerging companies in the U.S.  The survey includes the investment activity of professional venture capital firms with or without a US office, SBICs, venture arms of corporations, institutions, investment banks and similar entities whose primary activity is financial investing. Where there are other participants such as angels, corporations, and governments in a qualified and verified financing round the entire amount of the round is included. Qualifying transactions include cash investments by these entities either directly or by participation in various forms of private placement. All recipient companies are private, and may have been newly-created or spun-out of existing companies.

 

The survey excludes debt, buyouts, recapitalizations, secondary purchases, IPOs, investments in public companies such as PIPES (private investments in public entities), investments for which the proceeds are primarily intended for acquisition such as roll-ups, change of ownership, and other forms of private equity that do not involve cash such as services-in-kind and venture leasing.

 

Investee companies must be domiciled in one of the 50 US states or DC even if substantial portions of their activities are outside the United States.

 

Data is primarily obtained from a quarterly survey of venture capital practitioners. Information is augmented by other research techniques including other public and private sources. All data is subject to verification with the venture capital firms and/or the investee companies.  Only professional independent venture capital firms, institutional venture capital groups, and recognized corporate venture capital groups are included in venture capital industry rankings.

 

MoneyTree Survey results are available online at www.pwcmoneytree.com , www.ventureeconomics.com , and www.nvca.org .

 

The National Venture Capital Association (NVCA) represents over 450 venture capital and private equity organizations.  NVCA's mission is to foster the understanding of the importance of venture capital to the vitality of the U.S. and global economies, to stimulate the flow of equity capital to emerging growth companies by representing the public policy interests of the venture capital and private equity communities at all levels of government, to maintain high professional standards, facilitate networking opportunities and to provide research data and professional development for its members. For more information visit www.nvca.org .

 

The PricewaterhouseCoopers Private Equity & Venture Capital Practice is part of the Global Technology Industry Group, www.pwcglobaltech.com . The group is comprised of industry professionals who deliver a broad spectrum of services to meet the needs of fast-growth technology start-ups and agile, global giants in key industry segments: Networking & Computers, Software & Internet, Semiconductors, Life Sciences and Private Equity & Venture Capital. PricewaterhouseCoopers is a recognized leader in each industry segment with services for technology clients in all stages of growth.

 

PricewaterhouseCoopers ( www.pwcglobal.com ) is the world's largest professional services organization.  Drawing on the knowledge and skills of more than 125,000 people in 142 countries, we build relationships by providing services based on quality and integrity. "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to the network of member firms of PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited, each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.

 

Venture Economics, a Thomson Financial company, is the foremost information provider for equity professionals worldwide. Venture Economics offers an unparalleled range of products from directories to conferences, journals, newsletters, research reports, and the Venture Expert(TM) database. For over 40 years, Venture Economics has been tracking the venture capital and buyouts industry. Since 1961, it has been a recognized source for comprehensive analysis of investment activity and performance of the private equity industry. Venture Economics maintains long-standing relationships within the private equity investment community, in-depth industry knowledge, and proprietary research techniques. Private equity managers and institutional investors alike consider Venture Economics information to be the industry standard. For more information about Venture Economics, please visit www.ventureeconomics.com .

 

CONTACT: 

 

Jeanne Metzger of NVCA 

703-524-2549 x116 

jmetzger@nvca.org

Starr Million of Porter Novelli for PricewaterhouseCoopers, 

512-241-2237  starr.million@porternovelli.com

Jesse Reyes for Venture Economics 

973-645-9734 

jesse.reyes@tfn.com

 

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                    CIT ---Ying/Yang  Del/Calbreath

 

From:  Subject: RETIREMENT

 

Just a quick personal note to let you know that I will be retiring from CIT

this Friday, January 31 after almost 12 years.  Also retiring from my 30

years in the equipment finance/leasing industry (CIT, Chase Manhattan, Ford

Financial, Citicorp, Nevada Executive, Security National Bank (where we

first met)).  I have no immediate plans, other than to enjoy the fantastic

hilltop views from my new "retirement pad" in Escondido (maybe I'll buy a

big Winnebago and drive around "plugging up" freeways).

 

It has been my great pleasure to have been your friend and colleague all

these years.  Can you please start sending Leasing News to this personal

email address (bobdel@cox.net)... so I can stay in touch.  Thanks.

 

Bob Del <bobdel@cox.net>

 

--  

 

 

I just want to let you know that I have joined CIT starting

this week.

 

I am now part of the Equipment Rental and Finance- US group.

 

This will be a bit more of a generalist role in the leasing

market. Not too dissimilar to when I started in the industry

with CIT 1981-1986.

 

These are challenging times, but I feel very good about

joining CIT.

 

Keep up the good work on the newsletter!!

 

 Brian Carey

BCarey@ICResources.biz

 

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             Superbowl Economic effect expected  well below '98 event

 

By Dean Calbreath

SAN DIEGO UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER

 

 

Despite a raucous weekend for the Gaslamp Quarter, Super Bowl XXXVII turned out to be less than super for a number of San Diego businesses, with hotel attendance and tourist spending well below expectations.

 

Hotel occupancy levels and nightly rates were far below the peaks achieved in 1998, the last time the Super Bowl was in town. While estimates of the direct economic effect on San Diego vary from $30 million to $85 million, most analysts say this Super Bowl generated 15 percent to 30 percent less business than in 1998.

 

But local business leaders say any business is good business, and the Super Bowl brought in far more visitors than a typical week in January – breathing life into a normally sluggish patch of winter.

 

"Could hotels and restaurants have done better? They could have done a helluva lot better," said Matt Deline, president of RoomStar, the official hotel reservation service for the Super Bowl. "Could they have done worse? Definitely. Essentially, this was like the biggest convention a city could want."

 

On average, a Super Bowl boosts its host city's economic performance by about one-twentieth of 1 percent, said Victor Matheson, a specialist in sports economics with Williams College in Massachusetts.

 

"That sounds like a tiny number, but it's still a relatively large impact," Matheson said.

 

He calculated that between 1970 and 2000, the average impact for a Super Bowl city was about $65 million, with San Diego taking in about $70 million in 1998.

 

For several reasons, the revenue generated by the Super Bowl this year was lower than normal. Matheson calculates that the Super Bowl may generate $50 million in extra revenue for San Diego this year.

 

"The economy is softer, corporate travel is down, and corporate partying is down – especially in light of last year's accounting scandals," said Kelly Cunningham, economist with the Greater San Diego Chamber of Commerce.

 

In addition, there was just one week between the end of the playoffs and the Super Bowl, giving fans a short time to make travel plans. And there was a matchup between two Sun Belt teams, bringing in far fewer fans than a contest between teams from the Midwest or Northeast.

 

Cunningham, who uses different calculations than Matheson, estimated that the Super Bowl brought more than $100 million in direct revenue to San Diego in 1998, and about $85 million this year.

 

"The Raiders versus the Buccaneers was not the dream matchup for the hotel business," Deline said.

 

About 85 percent of local hotel rooms were occupied, compared with 92 percent in 1998, when Denver and Green Bay met in San Diego's last Super Bowl. The average nightly rate for a four-day stay last week was $271, compared with $325 in 1998.

 

Most visitors – particularly Raiders fans from Oakland and Los Angeles – limited their time in the city to one or two days, as opposed to 1998, when the fans were here on four-night stays. Many of the fans who came for two nights wanted really cheap rooms, not luxury properties.

 

"Each day last week, you could see the hotel rates get lower and lower because of lack of demand," Deline said. "The rates absolutely collapsed close to the weekend."

 

Deline said the downtown hotels experienced the biggest business, with occupancy rates of about 96 percent, thanks to their proximity to the Gaslamp Quarter and the NFL Experience – a football theme park. Most hotels near trolley lines also fared well, he said.

 

Additional business for restaurants and bars was similarly limited to specific locations rather than spread throughout the county, said Stephen Zolezzi, executive vice president of the Food & Beverage Association of San Diego County.

 

"Any place in the Gaslamp would have gotten a huge impact for the whole week," Zolezzi said. "But if you weren't in one of the core areas, you wouldn't have any effect at all."

 

Even in the crowded Gaslamp, business was less than some Super Bowl boosters had forecast. On a typical Saturday night, the Gaslamp attracts 30,000 to 40,000 people. On the eve of the Super Bowl, the streets were crowded with more than 100,000 people – far less than the 300,000 people that some voices had predicted earlier this month.

 

The crowds were large enough to demand extra policing and cleanup services.

 

The San Diego Police Department spent roughly $2 million to provide security for Super Bowl activities, including training before the event, overtime, equipment and construction, said Assistant Chief William Maheu. Those costs don't include spending by any other law enforcement agency, although Maheu said the backup support from other law enforcement was substantial. That allowed the department to spend about the same amount as it did for the 1998 Super Bowl.

 

Other law enforcement agencies that helped keep the peace during pre- game activities and the event this year, Maheu said, were the Sheriff's Department, the California Highway Patrol, the California National Guard, the San Diego Harbor Police and the FBI.

 

When combined with other city services – such as waste removal – it is estimated that the city may have spent up to $3 million on the Super Bowl. Since it may receive up to $3.5 million in hotel taxes, there was a net benefit for the city's budget – but not as much as the city was hoping for.

 

Staff writer Mark Arner contributed to this report.

 

Dean Calbreath: (619) 293-1891; dean.calbreath@uniontrib.com

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                       “Only in Ninersland”

 

 

     Walsh, 49ers a good fit; Mooch, Lions aren't

 

BOTH EX-COACHES ARE NEEDED, BUT ONLY ONE SHOULD RETURN

 

By Skip Bayless

San Jose Mercury News Staff Columnist

 

Only in Ninersland.

 

Bill Walsh, initially suspected by Steve Mariucci of helping get him fired, should coach this year. Mariucci should not.

 

Confused? So, it seems, is 49ers director John York. Ready, fire, aim: York pulled the trigger on Mariucci apparently without having someone better in mind.

 

So far, you've seen better lists of candidates running for county clerk. Not one name out there makes you go, ``Hmmm.'' No commanding presence or charismatic leader worthy of this franchise.

 

This is the wrong time to be looking for a head coach. The top drawer has been emptied. The latest candidate, 62-year-old Tampa Bay assistant Monte Kiffin, is another Buddy Ryan -- a terrific wild-man coordinator of a loaded defense who would occasionally embarrass this franchise as its head coach.

 

If only the 49ers could hire Kiffin just to revamp and revitalize their defense. New York Jets defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell and New England's Romeo Crennel also would be significant upgrades over Jim Mora. Yet Cottrell, Crennel and -- you're kidding -- Mora are being considered to replace Mariucci.

 

Now the only move that will save York from making a worse one is to beg Walsh to coach again until an obvious alternative emerges. Walsh has said that mentally he could coach better than ever, but that he couldn't take the physical grind at 71.

 

Please, Bill, do it for the franchise you love. Just for a year, two at most. Save York from his quick- triggered self. His petty firing of Mariucci prompted the Detroit Lions to make something York did not -- a plan.

 

Lions chief executive Matt Millen had announced after Detroit's 3-13 season that Marty Mornhinweg would return. Yet Millen originally hired 49ers offensive coordinator Mornhinweg -- Mooch Lite -- only because he couldn't hire Mooch. So when York unexpectedly axed Mariucci, Millen predictably axed Mornhinweg.

 

Mornhinweg will be forever remembered in Detroit for winning the overtime coin toss against rival Chicago and taking the wind, along with the gas. So Mariucci would provide the Lions with maybe two years worth of credibility and marketability. Mooch is a native Michigander who has more personality in one dimple than Mornhinweg had on his best day.

 

It appears owner William Clay Ford Sr. has authorized Millen to pay whatever it takes for the Lions to land the boyish wonder they could sell as their Jon Gruden. Of course, they'll eventually realize that Mooch is worth nowhere near the $3.5 million to $4 million they might shell out a year. But at least they're thinking big.

 

Mariucci, however, should think twice about diving into what looks like a can't-win job. Millen, the ex- 49ers and Raiders linebacker, made a much better player and broadcaster than a franchise-running executive. Millen has what Mariucci wants and -- in this case -- needs. Millen has total control of personnel moves.

 

Millen has made one rock-headed decision after another.

 

Rookie quarterback Joey Harrington had some moments, then lost his way before his season was ended by an irregular heartbeat. And unlike Gruden, Mariucci would not inherit a defense that could make MVP Rich Gannon's offense look more like Paul Revere and the Raiders.

 

Unless Mariucci could ingratiate himself with Ford and undermine Millen -- Mooch is capable -- his talent supply would hinge on Millen's myopic vision. That's why Mariucci should wait until next year, when three or four more jobs surely will open.

 

Last season must have felt like three to Mooch, who looked equally drained and relieved when York canned him. He needs to take a year off and, to use his term for injuries, ``healthy up.'' Lose a few pounds. Get back in shape. Spend some real time with his four kids. Do a little TV work.

 

Take a paid vacation on York, who owes him $2.25 million if he doesn't take another job. Of course, ``Motown Mooch'' would be good news for fans of a cost-cutting franchise turning into the 49 Cent- ers. York's coaching budget would improve by $2.25 million.

 

But to spend on whom? The only hire that would drop jaws and fan Super Bowl flames would be Jimmy Johnson. But apparently he would want too much money and power for York's regime, and he doesn't exactly fit the 49ers' class-and-character image. But would you ever love seeing what Johnson could do with a 49ers defense that was the NFL's worst on third down.

 

Great defense just won the championship for the third year in a row. The often defenseless 49ers were outscored in fourth quarters 146-79. Champion Tampa Bay outscored opponents in fourth quarters 124-41.

 

Yet Dennis Green, the best candidate left on the shelf, is strictly an offensive coach whose Minnesota defenses were always playoff liabilities. Green bowed out of the running for the Jacksonville and Cincinnati jobs because he wanted more general manager control. So he'd take the 49ers job with no say in personnel matters and an offensive coaching staff that has been signed for next season?

 

Tyrone Willingham would be a fine choice, but he couldn't break his commitment to Notre Dame after just one season. Rick Neuheisel? Lovie Smith? Gary Kubiak? Nobody knocks your socks off.

 

No, Walsh is the only way out of this mess. You might argue he wouldn't want to tarnish his NFL legacy. But like Michael Jordan, he's beyond that.

 

You wouldn't expect a Super Bowl from Walsh. You could expect he'd be a little better than Mooch.

 

                  War Threat Eroding Consumer Confidence

 

                                     By Rebecca Gomez

 

 

AP Business Writer

 

 

NEW YORK –– The threat of war with Iraq is eroding consumer confidence, economists said Tuesday, but it doesn't yet seem enough to jeopardize the upward trend in new home sales.

 

"There's no doubt the uncertainties about geopolitical events weigh on people's minds," said Josh Feinman, chief economist with Deutsche Asset Management in New York. "Is there going to be a war? Certainly, that's contributing to people's anxiety,"

 

The Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 79 in January from a revised 80.7 in December, but was above the 78.5 that analysts were anticipating. The index is based on a survey of 5,000 U.S. households and compares to its base of 100 in 1985.

 

"Overall readings continue to reflect the country's lackluster economic activity," said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's Consumer Research Center. "Now, with the threat of war looming, consumers have grown increasingly cautious about the short- term outlook."

 

The Conference Board report showed consumers were also concerned about the job outlook and their incomes in the next six months. The index has fallen since May when it stood at 110.3, ticking upward just once in November.

 

"The decline came entirely from the expectations component, again reflecting fear of what comes next," said Oscar Gonzalez, senior economist at John Hancock Financial Services in Boston. "The next few weeks are so uncertain that, in this instance, the numbers probably reflect the American mood, rather than a rational assessment of the economic environment."

 

Separately, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday that sales of new single-family homes rose in December to their highest level since the government began tracking results in 1963.

 

New home sales reached a seasonally adjusted annual level of 1.08 million in December, achieving both a monthly and yearly record. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of economic activity and new homes sales have helped buttress an otherwise lackluster economy.

 

"In times of uncertainty, people still want a home and the home front is helping keep the economy moving forward," Gonzalez added.

 

For the year, new home sales ballooned nearly 8 percent over 2001 results.

 

Meanwhile, the latest durable goods report showed only a marginal increase, suggesting the battered manufacturing sector is still far from being able to contribute to an economy recovery.

 

New orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket goods – also known as durable goods – rose by 0.2 percent in December, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. Though economists were expecting a much bigger increase of 1 percent, the report did improve from November, when new orders of durable goods fell by a sharp 1.3 percent.

 

Economists say businesses must start investing in costly capital goods for the economy to achieve a sustained comeback.

 

"The manufacturing sector is deep in the dumps, and this report gives little hope of improvement, " Gonzalez said. "The only good news is that the results round out a flat year." For all of 2002, new orders to factories for costly manufactured goods fell 0.2 percent, compared with an 11.6 percent plunge suffered in 2001.

 

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and his Federal Open Market Committee are currently meeting in Washington to decide whether to change the short-term interest rate, currently at a 41-year low of 1.25 percent. Many economists believe they'll maintain the status quo, hoping to reinvigorate business spending and sustain consumer participation in the modest recovery.

 

 

Low interest rates spurred a mortgage refinancing boom and have given people extra cash to spend, helping the economy.

 

In the consumer confidence survey, the percentage of people who said they planned to buy a home in the coming months increased slightly to 3.4 percent from 3.2 percent. However, fewer people plan to purchase a car or major appliance, the Conference Board found.

 

"Whether a drop in confidence will lead to a decline in spending is always a wild card, probably even more so right now" because of the threat of war, Gonzalez said.

 

Those surveyed also expressed more worries about the job front in the next six months, reflecting consumers' conflicting sentiments about the economy. They are enticed by low-interest rates and plan to purchasing new homes, despite an unstable job market.

 

Consumers expecting fewer jobs in the first half of the year edged up to 20.9 percent in December from 20.2 percent. Those who thought their incomes would increase fell to 18.4 percent from 19.6 percent in December. Overall, consumers are less optimistic about the next six months than they were a month ago.

 

"The only way to get sustained improvement in consumers' outlook is that geopolitical issue has to be resolved," Feinman said. "As long as it's continuing to loom, I think people are going to stay in a funk."

 

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